Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.325473 1.392601 1.462035 1.539377 1.623309 1.711849 1.812583
2025-11-09 1.208010 1.301260 1.401603 1.518191 1.650678 1.797451 1.973614
2025-11-16 1.130064 1.237269 1.355678 1.497245 1.663352 1.853934 2.091906
2025-11-23 1.080635 1.198872 1.332284 1.495633 1.692590 1.925564 2.226921
2025-11-30 1.046233 1.174064 1.321017 1.504786 1.731885 2.008159 2.377627
2025-12-07 1.003132 1.135884 1.290766 1.487766 1.736144 2.045423 2.470856
2025-12-14 0.960066 1.095242 1.254899 1.460887 1.725059 2.060679 2.533922
2025-12-21 0.927284 1.065298 1.230216 1.445912 1.727133 2.091517 2.618165
2025-12-28 0.910795 1.054293 1.227935 1.458445 1.764508 2.169921 2.772602
2026-01-04 0.889398 1.036127 1.215587 1.456883 1.782369 2.221954 2.892120
2026-01-11 0.876575 1.028015 1.215321 1.470587 1.820775 2.303753 3.060803
2026-01-18 0.857404 1.011043 1.202828 1.467144 1.834915 2.351272 3.180309
2026-01-25 0.837604 0.993105 1.189018 1.462098 1.847593 2.398894 3.306625
2026-02-01 0.812892 0.968084 1.165083 1.442237 1.838181 2.413206 3.380461
2026-02-08 0.789959 0.944630 1.142342 1.422913 1.828259 2.425593 3.451250
2026-02-15 0.775311 0.931526 1.132837 1.421424 1.843905 2.477423 3.592634
2026-02-22 0.765285 0.924136 1.130625 1.429877 1.874308 2.553600 3.783122
2026-03-01 0.746958 0.905161 1.112045 1.414158 1.867392 2.569617 3.866433
2026-03-08 0.726256 0.882487 1.087758 1.389318 1.845364 2.559668 3.900419
2026-03-15 0.710422 0.865975 1.071471 1.375471 1.839525 2.575719 3.984545
2026-03-22 0.704179 0.862228 1.072651 1.387061 1.873541 2.659852 4.208383
2026-03-29 0.693821 0.852583 1.065269 1.385617 1.886731 2.709145 4.367882
2026-04-05 0.688603 0.849806 1.067380 1.398285 1.922869 2.800163 4.623420